Poker Hands Bad Beats
Answer 1 of 9: Heading to A. In 14 days (2 comp nights booked at Ballys and Resorts.will decide which 1 next week). Looking for a Poker room with all the Bells and Whistles (i.e. Free rolls, High hands, Bad Beats, Hourly comps etc. Millions of people play poker around the world. After playing hand after hand, players are bound to see some horrific bad beats (which is a hand that is beaten by a lucky draw) over the years. Bad Beat Jackpots The Poker Room offers multiple Bad Beat Jackpots with different qualifiers. Just being on the table that hits a Bad Beat Jackpot pays. All the Players on a table that hits the jackpot will share a portion of the winnings. There are also cash prizes awarded daily for other fun and easy Poker Room promotions. A, K, Q, J, 10 suited.
'Bad beat' is a term that can mean having an outstanding chance of winning a bet, only to still lose. The term can be used in any form of gambling but is most commonly applied to poker. Many poker rooms offer a progressive jackpot for very unlikely bad beats. Various other rules are added to ensure that only surprising bad beats win.
Introduction
'Bad beat' is a term that can mean having an outstanding chance of winning a bet, only to still lose. The term can be used in any form of gambling but is most commonly applied to poker. Many poker rooms offer a progressive jackpot for very unlikely bad beats. Various other rules are added to ensure that only surprising bad beats win. Below I present tables of bad beat probabilities, starting with the most liberal rules, and ending with the most stringent. The most stringent rules, the 'Bad Beat Type 3', are the most common, in my experience.
Following are the rules for a type 1 bad beat.
- Both the bad beat and winning hand must be the best possible combination of five cards. In cases where the same hand can be created multiple ways (for example player has AK and the board shows AAKKQ) the player's hole cards will take priority.
- Both the bad beat and winning hand must make use of both hole cards.
- A full house must be beaten by a four of a kind or higher.
The rules for a type 2 bad beat are the same as type 1, plus any four of a kind, whether the bad beat hand or winning hand, must contain a pocket pair.
The rules for a type 3 bad beat are the same as type 2, plus a full house may not make use of a three of a kind entirely on the board.
In my experience, is the most common format for bad beat rules is type 3. The additional rule for type 3 makes very little difference, compared to type 2.
The following table shows the probability of each bad beat hand under all three types of rules. The table is based on a ten-player game in which nobody ever folds. The probabilities are for any pair of players meeting the qualifying rules. If you want to know YOUR probability of winning, you should divide the probability in the table by 10.
Bad Beat Probabilities
| Bad Beat Hand | Type 1 | Type 2 | Type 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any full house | 0.00203329 | 0.00050305 | 0.00049508 |
| Full house, three 3's or higher | 0.00189512 | 0.00046978 | 0.00046204 |
| Full house, three 4's or higher | 0.00175159 | 0.00043444 | 0.00042728 |
| Full house, three 5's or higher | 0.00160333 | 0.00039706 | 0.00039028 |
| Full house, three 6's or higher | 0.00144965 | 0.00035741 | 0.00035145 |
| Full house, three 7's or higher | 0.0012936 | 0.00031767 | 0.00031266 |
| Full house, three 8's or higher | 0.00113492 | 0.00027775 | 0.00027355 |
| Full house, three 9's or higher | 0.00097379 | 0.00023772 | 0.00023445 |
| Full house, three T's or higher | 0.00081113 | 0.00019759 | 0.00019503 |
| Full house, three J's or higher | 0.00064763 | 0.00015708 | 0.00015509 |
| Full house, three Q's or higher | 0.00048533 | 0.00011838 | 0.00011682 |
| Full house, three K's or higher | 0.00032561 | 0.00008130 | 0.00008033 |
| Full house, three A's or higher | 0.00016964 | 0.00004608 | 0.00004579 |
| Full house, aces full of 3's or higher | 0.00016004 | 0.00004350 | 0.00004322 |
| Full house, aces full of 4's or higher | 0.00014986 | 0.00004080 | 0.00004052 |
| Full house, aces full of 5's or higher | 0.00013898 | 0.00003797 | 0.00003763 |
| Full house, aces full of 6's or higher | 0.00012749 | 0.00003504 | 0.00003469 |
| Full house, aces full of 7's or higher | 0.00011580 | 0.00003233 | 0.00003203 |
| Full house, aces full of 8's or higher | 0.00010347 | 0.00002957 | 0.00002925 |
| Full house, aces full of 9's or higher | 0.00009067 | 0.00002673 | 0.00002645 |
| Full house, aces full of T's or higher | 0.00007714 | 0.00002383 | 0.00002359 |
| Full house, aces full of J's or higher | 0.00006286 | 0.00002064 | 0.0000204 |
| Full house, aces full of Q's or higher | 0.00004793 | 0.00001738 | 0.00001721 |
| Full house, aces full of K's or higher | 0.00003230 | 0.00001408 | 0.00001402 |
| Any four of a kind | 0.00001601 | 0.00001086 | 0.00001081 |
| Four 3's or higher | 0.00001437 | 0.00000996 | 0.00000992 |
| Four 4's or higher | 0.0000127 | 0.00000900 | 0.00000902 |
| Four 5's or higher | 0.00001099 | 0.00000805 | 0.00000804 |
| Four 6's or higher | 0.00000934 | 0.00000705 | 0.00000707 |
| Four 7's or higher | 0.0000078 | 0.00000613 | 0.00000611 |
| Four 8's or higher | 0.0000064 | 0.00000525 | 0.00000519 |
| Four 9's or higher | 0.00000519 | 0.00000439 | 0.00000435 |
| Four T's or higher | 0.00000414 | 0.00000359 | 0.00000357 |
| Four J's or higher | 0.00000317 | 0.00000287 | 0.00000285 |
| Four Q's or higher | 0.00000246 | 0.00000226 | 0.00000224 |
| Four K's or higher | 0.00000193 | 0.00000180 | 0.00000179 |
| Four A's or higher | 0.00000157 | 0.00000149 | 0.00000147 |
| Any straight flush | 0.0000012 | 0.00000122 | 0.00000121 |
| Straight flush 6 high or higher | 0.00000105 | 0.00000107 | 0.00000105 |
| Straight flush 7 high or higher | 0.00000089 | 0.00000091 | 0.00000090 |
| Straight flush 8 high or higher | 0.00000073 | 0.00000074 | 0.00000074 |
| Straight flush 9 high or higher | 0.00000056 | 0.00000059 | 0.00000058 |
| Straight flush T high or higher | 0.00000041 | 0.00000043 | 0.00000042 |
| Straight flush J high or higher | 0.00000028 | 0.00000027 | 0.00000027 |
| Straight flush Q high or higher | 0.00000012 | 0.00000012 | 0.00000012 |
Poker Hands Bad Beats Headphones
Methodology
The above tables are the result of random simulations of about 2.5 billion rounds each.
Further Reading
The video poker variant World Series of Poker - Final Table Bonus features a bad beat jackpot. See my section on that game for more information.
Brian Alspach has a very good page on Texas Hold'em, including a section on the Bad Beat Jackpot at Party Poker.
Poker Hands Bad Beats Bad
Written by: Michael Shackleford
You Can Become A Winning Poker Player
I usually keep the tone of articles here light, friendly and deliberately non-preachy… After all, just because someone is new to poker and wants some concepts explaining does not mean they are not intelligent and successful people!
This time it is different. This time I want to get some home-truths out there – address a recurring theme on poker forums, blogs and in chat-boxes which kind of bugs me.
The kind of questions I’m referring to are these:
- ‘I am playing great poker, so why can’t I win?’
- ‘How can I make money when so many donks are making bad calls and sucking out on me all the time?’
- ‘Poker site X must be rigged against me’
- ‘I’m a great player, just constantly unlucky’
- ‘Should I move up levels to where people understand and respect my raises?’
If you can identify with any of these questions then this article is for you.
90% Of Players Feel They Are In The Top 20%
Ok, the statistic is just my estimate, however the vast majority of poker players do think they are naturally talented, or somehow innately better than their peers. When evidence accumulates (they lose!) that, well, they might not be such a phenomenon after all several mental defenses come into play. You’ll tell yourself that you are good but unlucky, that the blame lies with ‘bad players’ who do not understand your skillful play and then keep getting lucky against you – or even that poker sites rig the games against you.
These defenses are all well and good. They explain your frustration and keep you believing that you’ll break through one day…
Except you won’t break through.
You need a change of mindset to do so.
These defenses hold the huge majority of players back. Once you get over them you can start to work on your game in a constructive way, to give yourself a real chance of breaking through.
Here are my 3 ‘core realizations’ which players need to make in order to start constructively working on their games. I’ll deal with each point below.
- – Poker is not rigged, and you are not the most unlucky player who ever lived.
- – If you can’t beat bad players then you will get crushed by strong players.
- – You are not some innate super-talent, you need to study and work hard on your game.
Realization #1 – Poker Not Rigged, You Are Not Exceptionally Unlucky
There have been billions of poker hands played online, even the smaller sites are in the 10’s of millions. These hands are tracked by the various tracking services and individually by millions of players using databases like Holdem Manager 2. You know what, the deal is random. Any perception you have otherwise is not supported by any evidence over large sample sizes. It is 2013, let us put this ‘rigged’ thing to bed once and for all!
Luck in poker is short term in nature. While a downswing can be brutal, the upswings will eventually compensate. What holds players back is blaming ‘bad luck’ as an excuse not to work on their game… the chance element evens out in the end, get over it.
Realization #2 – Too Many Donks Are Impossible To Beat
I know, I know, you read the strategy, studied the forums to see how the experts handle certain situations and played that hand damn ‘perfectly’. Then, *boom* some idiot who did not have a clue about solid poker strategy made a bad call and cost you your stack. This keeps happening again and again… and its getting to the point where you feel the only solution is to move up levels to where people understand your play and don’t make those stupid calls which end up costing you.
This thinking is extremely common, and deeply flawed.
First, players who make bad – as in negative expected value – calls are the easiest of all opponents to beat. Sure, they will stack you with some random hand occasionally, but you have a positive edge every time you play them. Over time you will accumulate money and they will lose it, period… all you need is to play as many hands as possible.
Secondly, poker strategy never works in a vacuum. It is never a case of ‘do x for $$$ every time’. The core of strategy is about playing against an individual opponent – if you are incapable of adjusting your strategy to exploit players who consistently make negative expectation plays of their own free will then you need to work on your game. Instead of thinking about the ‘best way to play hand XX in situation YY’ you should focus on the best way to exploit the weaknesses of players who make mistake ZZ.
If are not capable of understanding the adjustments needed to beat the worst players then those players who are capable of doing this will take your bankroll. They will see your tendencies and weaknesses and play in such a way as to exploit them, sometimes taking small edges repeatedly and sometimes attaching big leaks.
Poker Hands Bad Beats Instrumentals
Newer readers, please – poker is about learning to spot and exploit the weaknesses of your opponents. No ‘bag of tricks’ will help you for long if you do not understand this!
Realization #3 – You Are Not Some Natural Talent
Sorry, I’d love to bring you the happy news that you are the next poker superstar – and that you need not work on your game along the way… unfortunately it just is not true. In fact, poker is tough, if you do not work hard on your game those people you label ‘lucky donks’ who have put in the hours will have an edge on you…
What is more this edge will only grow over time.
You see, the players who study their hand histories, locate and plug their leaks, go through areas with friends (virtual or real), read, watch videos and think about how they can maximize the value by changing their bet sizing in different situations (for example) are the ones who will show a profit over time.
The players who feel they know enough and simply log on and play will find themselves getting behind.
What is more, those who get a solid foundation through study will be best equipped to add new ideas and strategies to their games. Instead of an ‘trick’ they can integrate ideas into their solid understanding, knowing how and when to use the new idea to max advantage.
Luckily you can make fast improvements in this area by simply taking one hour of play from every 5 hours and using this for study instead. Or of course you could always blame bad luck!
Playing Great And Still Losing – You Can Become A Winner
I’ll end with some good news, you can become a winner – anyone of average intelligence + and a little motivation can beat online poker.
How far you go depends on how much effort you put in. Not just to education, but aspects like site / table selection, focus on the games and bankroll management too.
Once you get over the ‘excuses’ holding you back you can make the decision on whether to commit to the task of becoming a long-term winner, or relaxing and treating poker as a bit of fun – while enjoying the occasional win.
Plug For My SNG Course: If you are at the stage where you would like to build a bankroll, then please check out my free course ‘The $16 / Hour SNG Blueprint’. This will take you from novice to making $16+ per hour grinding Sit N Go tournaments over 4 parts. I wrote this to help build the audience for my site – and it continues to get fantastic feedback.